And so it is.

The receiver Tiers will probably change more than any other rankings between now and the start of the season.  There are a number of top-flight receivers who are either injured  (Jeremy Maclin, Marques Colston, Austin Collie), holding out (Desean Jackson) or with a new quarterback/team (Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Chatty Johnson).  They could make significant moves up or down the board in the next few weeks.  Last year there were four receivers in the top twelve in scoring who weren’t drafted until after the 6th round.  Even more important from a draft analysis standpoint is that receivers ranked 7-18 all scored between 149-125 points so there wasn’t much of a difference.  If you look down to WR30 he is still over 100, so there is not a huge difference between say WR10 and WR30.  Our strategy is to try and get one of the top 5 receivers and then fill in with some solid number twos in the 6th-8th round.   This doesn’t necessarily mean you go for a receiver in the first round, because four of the top six receivers from last season weren’t highly drafted.  Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Lloyd, Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace weren’t taken until after the second round.  Make sure you get a top fifteen receiver from your board and then take a chance on a few guys in the later rounds.  Don’t overdraft solid veteran types too early because you can get similar players as they emerge throughout the season.  If you are in a PPR league, you will have to make a few adjustments as players like Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall are always good bets for 100 catches.  You need to have at least one receiver from the top two Tiers and one from Tier 3.

 

Tier I- These are players with the capability of going 1,500, 15 TDs and who won’t be out of the top 15 barring injury.

 

1.Andre Johnson, Texans

2.Calvin Johnson, Lions

3.Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

4.Greg Jennings, Packers-  A great receiver with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. 

5.Roddy White, Falcons- Rookies Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers will take some of the pressure off but might also steal some touchdowns.

Tier 2- Very close to the Tier 1’s and should go 1,200 yards and 8-9 TDs.

6. Vincent Jackson, Chargers- He’s a real question mark with his constant bickering with the Chargers front office, but he has the potential to be a Tier 1 especially if Gates is out for a period of time.  He's been diving all over the field in pre-season so we'll assume he's motivated and focused.

7.Hakeem Nicks, Giants-  He can be unstoppable at times, but health is always a concern.

8.Miles Austin, Cowboys- Romo’s back, back, back.  Back Again.

9.Dez Bryant, Cowboys- See Miles Austin.

10.Mike Williams, Bucaneers-  We called this one as we said Williams was the best receiver of his draft class.  If Freeman continues to develop and Williams doesn’t go off the rails his ceiling is very high.

11.Mike Wallace, Steelers

12.Reggie Wayne, Colts

13.Desean Jackson, Eagles- He’s great but tiny and disgruntled. 

14.Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

15.Brandon Marshall, Dolphins- He had 85 catches for 1,000 yards in a down year.  He’s an off the field risk which is why he’s not in the top 10.

Tier 3- These are guys you can start every week, but they better be your number two receiver.  Welker is a Tier 2 in a PPR league.

16.  Brandon Lloyd, Broncos

17.  Percy Harvin, Vikings

18.  Anquan Boldin, Ravens

19.  Wes Welker, Patriots

20.  Santonio Holmes, Jets

21.  Julio Jones, Falcons

22.  Steve Johnson, Bills

23.  Chad Johnson, Patriots

Tier 4- Tier 3 guys with question marks.

24.  Mike Thomas, Jaguars

25.  Kenny Britt, Titans

26.  Sidney Rice, Seahawks-  He’s a Tier 1 ship without a captain.

27.  Pierre Garcon, Colts- We don’t think he’s ever going to get his mind right, but he can throw up big games.

28.  Lance Moore, WR, Saints

29.  Marques Colston, Saints- He’s got more ailments than Baron Munchausen.

30.  Mario Manningham, Giants

31.  Mike Sims-Walker, Rams

Tier 5- These are low risk guys (meaning they can, at worst, be fill-ins) who also have high ceilings if someone gets hurt or they become a favored target.

32.  Austin Collie, Colts

33.  Johnny Knox, Bears

34.  Jeremy Maclin, Eagles

35.  Plaxico Burress, Jets

36.  AJ Green, Bengals

37.  Jacoby Ford, Raiders

38.  Braylon Edwards, 49ers- If Crabtree is going to miss some regular season games we’ll move him up.

39.  Malcolm Floyd, Chargers

40.  Antonio Brown, Steelers

41.  Lee Evans, Ravens

42.  Danny Amendola, Rams

43.  Steve Smith, Panthers

44.  Santana Moss, Redskins

45.  Devery Henderson, Saints

46.  Nate Burleson, Lions

Tier 6- Guys who can give you an occasional start.

A. The first group are the high upside players who could be completely worthless.  Get one of these guys and cut him if he doesn't look good after 3-4 weeks.

47.  Denarius Moore, Raiders

48.  Greg Little, Browns

49.  Andre Roberts, Cardinals

50.  James Jones, Packers

51.  Devin Hester, Bears

52.  Eric Decker, Broncos

53.  Big Mike Williams, Seahawks

54.  Cecil Shorts, Jaguars

55.  Jerome Simpson, Bengals

56.  Bernard Berrian, Vikings

57.  Victor Cruz, Giants

B.  The second group of Tier 6 are the tortoises.  They don't have big upside but should get you steady 50 yard games with an occasional touchdown.

58. Davone Bess, Dolphins

59. Hines Ward, Steelers

60. Nate Washington, Titans

61. Michael Crabtree, 49ers- We have to see how his injury checks out.

62. Harry Douglas, Falcons

63. Jordan Shipley, Bengals

64. Donald Jones, Bills

65. Jerhame Urban, Chiefs

66. Muhammed Massaqoui, Browns

67. Jacoby Jones, Texans

68. Jordy Nelson, Packers

68. Arrelious Benn, Bucaneers

69. Jason Avant, Eagles

70. Jabbar Gaffney, Redskins

71. Deion Branch, Patriots

72. Robert Meacham, Saints

73.  Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers

74.  Josh Cribbs, Browns

75. Kevin Walter, Texans