A lot of holes in the desert, and a lot of problems are buried in those holes.

Fade ‘Em, Trade ‘Em or Raid 'Em

                In the Ovaltine society we now live in, everything happens much faster.  In a few short weeks fantasy football players have gone from first round studs, to worthless duds.  If you ask people this week, Devonta Freeman, Rishard Matthews and Derek Carr are the holy trinity of fantasy football. Everybody has their Week 3 MVPs, we like to call them.  Who was it last year?  Nick Foles.  That’s funny.  Currently, last season’s leading rusher Demarco Murray, Alshon Jeffrey and Jeremy Hill are worthless, fantasy team slayers.  Next week it will be someone else, on both sides of the ledger.  How do you sort through it all and use the media and the miniscule news cycle to your advantage.  We’ll tell you, but beware because this is risky business.  It’s like dating a Kardashian.  You might have the time of your life, but then again you might get Mr. Happy cut off. 

          Keep in mind when we tell you to keep someone or trade someone, that always depends on the price.  For instance when we tell you to fade (that means avoid in poker parlance) C.J. Anderson, if someone offers him to you for Blame Bortles, by all means have at it.  But if they are still sniffing for first round value, run away. 

Fade and Trade

Marshawn Lynch is getting old, running behind a sub-par offensive line and he’s hurt.  He will still have a few great games, but his days as weekly 80-yard, TD producer are done.   If you have him, trade him before it’s too late.  If you don’t have him, fade him. 

C.J. Anderson has left every game with a nagging injury.  The Broncos offensive line isn’t very good and Ronnie Hillman is pushing Anderson.  The good news for Anderson owners is that Kubiak will continue to commit to the run and Peyton’s days of consistent 40+ passes are a thing of the past.  This week Kubiak challenged Anderson’s manhood.  We’d give him one more week.  If he doesn’t produce this week then feel free to bury him. 

Lamar Miller quieted his doubters last season with a 1,000 yard performance that included plenty of runs between the tackles.  In 2015 the Dolphins guards are atrocious, and there isn’t any room to run.  With games remaining against the Bills, Jets and Patriots we don’t expect that to change much.  We think Jonas Gray will be the lead back within a few weeks.  If you can get any value for Miller, trade him. 

Demarco Murray was the NFL’s leading rusher, but a change of scenery hasn’t been productive.  The Eagles will surely be better offensively than they have been through three games and if Murray gets back on the field he will have a few big games.  He won’t be consistent enough with Matthews and Sproles plucking carries so we’d get rid of him, but only after he has a good week.

Justin Forsett has never been a big touchdown scorer, so for him to be productive he needs to rack up touches.   He also needs to have a threat on the outside to open some space.  Steve Smith is incredible, but teams still don’t game plan for him.  The Ravens tackles have been horrendous and we see a lot of uninspiring 50-yard performances in Forsett’s future.  Fade him or trade him.

Others to bury include Alfred Morris, Brandin Cooks and Golden Tate.  Alshon Jeffrey is on the verge of the list, but we aren’t certain he won’t be traded to a contender in the Bears’ fire sale so we’d hold on to him.

Raid ‘Em

What’s not to like about Latavius Murray?  He has no legit back-up, he has a solid passing game to keep the focus off of him, his offensive line is one of the better units in the NFL with the addition of Pro Bowl caliber center Rodney Hudson, he’s big, fast and has good hands.

Davante Adams has done squadoosh so far and now he’s injured.  Part of the attraction in going after Adams is the price.  He will come very cheap and as the Packers’ record setting passing game marches along he’s a good bet to get his piece at some point this season.

T.Y. Hilton has dealt with a nagging injury and the Colts have yet to get their prolific passing game in high gear.  The Colts defense is bad, and we think Luck and Co. will figure it out.  Hilton’s value may be as low as it will be all season.

So you're making a deal and looking for a throw in.  Get Duke Johnson.  He's done nothing yet, but neither has Isaiah Crowell.  The Browns were expected to have one the premier offensive lines in the NFL, though they haven't jelled yet.  They fired their offensive line coach this week so that may help them right the ship. 

Trade ‘Em High

This is the hardest thing to do and can earn a fantasy owner years of ribbing (trust me I’ve been on the wrong side of a few of these), but you have to do it to win championships.

Larry Fitzgerald is on pace to post 1,600 and 26 TDs.  He’s going to have a great season, but it won’t approach those numbers.  If you can get first round value for him, do it.

Brandon Marshall has scored TDs in 3 consecutive weeks.  His current tosser is Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith will probably be taking punches snaps soon enough.  If someone’s buying in on Marshall, you need to be selling.

Steve Smith is the only weapon that the Ravens have, and that’s not good for his long term prognosis. 

Hold on Loosley, And Maybe Let Go

If you cling too tightly, you're gonna lose control.

Lesean McCoy should still be productive, when he plays, but he's got three strikes against him:  he's old, injured and well paid.

Arian Foster is a one cut runner.  He's also one cut away from being out for the season.  If you're starting him this week be prepared to turn blue holding your breath.

Keep a relatively tight grip on these flavors of the week: Karlos Williams, Matt Jones, Alfred Blue and Thomas Rawls.  They are an old guy injury away from producing RB1/RB2 numbers.

           Remember that every year around this time people have given up on certain players.  Figure out who will rebound and who won’t and you’ve got the inside track on a championship. Figure out the numbers for the lottery this week and you'll win millions.