It happens every time, they all become blueberries.

     The Quarterback Eggdicator

A Golden Goose is what you want

And Very, Very Good is something to flaunt

Fair to Middlin' won't get the boot

But Bad Eggs always go down the chute

 

Understand what the Eggdicator is (very accurate) and what it is not.  It is not an indicator (it's an eggdicator) of where a quarterback ranks in his (or her) career.  It is a mostly current barometer of where a tosser ranks based on the past season with a sprinkling of the more distant past and a dash of his, or her, immediate future. Now we have a different gauge than some do when it comes to determining a tosser's greatness.  Our view is that the regular season serves one purpose, to get to the playoffs.  Setting records and going 14-2 and then bed wetting in the playoffs is what Shakespeare called the sound and the fury.  It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.  Those are the Dan Marino's, Peyton Manning's, Drew Brees's, Brett Favre's, and Tony Romo's of the world.  They own nearly every NFL career and single season passing record and in their grand total of 111 seasons have generated a whopping 4 (non-cheating) Super Bowls.  Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco are just good in the regular season but have beaten sound and fury boys' Super Bowl tally (5) in only 26 seasons.  Our position is that we want the guys that get to the playoffs and then turn it on versus the ones who turn it on in the regular season and choke when it matters. You can call us a crazy, but you'll have to take a number.

Bad Eggs

Don't hold your breath for a Super Bowl title.

 

Sam Darnold

Let's be real, the Jets could bring in Aaron Rodgers and he'd look average.  They haven't had an elite passing quarterback since the turn of the 70's. They doinked their 2018 selection of Sam Darnold, who was more of a late first round developmental type.  Darnold posted 15 interceptions with only 17 touchdowns.  His rookie year was much like his final year at USC (imagine that!) where he made some incredible throws but was simply far too turnover prone.  We expect an improvement with a new coach (right?) in 2019, but he's still a ways away from average.

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill is the King of Let's Give Him One More Year. He's like the kid whose mother said, "Well let's just give him a few more months", and she's still breastfeeding her 5 year old. He's 30, average when he plays, highly paid, and oft injured.  He should have been left to find greener pastures years ago...but it is the Dolphins.

Elisha Manning

I think momma Manning really wanted girls.  Elisha and Peyton? Anywho, Manning has the worst TD/Interception ratio of any modern quarterback who started more than a few seasons.  Most of that occured in his prime.  He's no longer in his prime.

Blame Bortles

Umm, like we said when he was drafted...

Josh Rosen

He's about what we expected.  Decent arm, but he looks a bit scared when contact comes. Maybe a Jared Goff type ceiling, or he could be Christian Ponder in a few years. 

Joe Flacco

Dude has  fallen from near-elite to bad egg in four years.  At 33 with 4 four low end seasons, he looks done.  He could go to a team in a tosser competition and be serviceable.  People will try to re-write his history based on the last few years, but the guy was money in the post-season and he still has more playoff wins than Aaron Rodgers.

Andy Dalton

After 5 winning seasons to start his career, he's posted three losing, injury-riddled seasons.  He's 31 and makes lots of money.  Down the chute.

Jameis Winston

We were the only scout in America that didn't have Winston as a top 10 pick, but then again we're the only scout that matters anymore.  The Bucs will probably draft a tosser this year and Jameis can go to New York and sexually assault crabs and steal women.

Fair to Middlin'

There are high end Fair to Middlin' and low end Fair to Middlin'.  These guys can get you to a Superbowl, but they better have a great defense and/or running game.

 

Low end Fair to Middlin'

 

Case Keenum

He may turn into a Ryan Fitzmagic/Nick Foles type who's better coming off the bench than he is as the day one starter.  Elway's track record with tossers has been abysmal, so we will cut Keenum a little slack.

Marcus Mariota

He's been very average since an excellent rookie campaign.  He's a tough nut who plays injured, but he also always seems to be injured. His career record of 27-28 seems about right.

Matt Stafford

He's been on quite the downhill slide since we attended his rehearsal dinner a few years back. (No joke, we was there.) Some people claim that there's a woman to blame, but he was never really that good. 

Josh Allen

Dude can run. We were spot on with our Jake Locker comparison.  Allen has had some great games running, but 7 TDs and 11 Interceptions is an alarming stats.  Even Locker posted a 10/11 his first year.  Of course when you combine that with the Bills pathetic record with tossers, this was bound to happen.  He'll be a back-up by 2021 if Trump hasn't put us in a nuclear war by then.

 

High End Fair to Middlin':

Jimmy Garoppolo

The little we've seen of him, he's an elite talent.  2018 was supposed to be his break-out season but an early season ending injury sent him home early.

Kirk Cousins

Cousins, we don't like that 2018 season buddy.  He's been highly inconsistent for weeks and months at a time.  Overall he's been average but there is always that sense he's going to make a playoff run.  He's 30 so he'd better hurry.

Derek Carr

We think Gruden will drive the Raiders into the ground.  Wait, he's already done that. He's run Reggie Mckenzie out of town (wasn't he the GM of the Year a few years ago) as well as the best player he will ever coach in Khalil Mack and his only decent receiver in Amari Cooper.  On the plus side, he can be really good with tossers. Lost in the disastrous 2018 season for the Raiders is the fact that Carr, who was the NFL's highest paid player only a few short years ago, is having the best statistical season of his career.

Mitchell Trubisky

Remember how last year everybody thought Blame Bortles might be good? Bortles had a great running game and an even better defense and he bumbled his way to a playoff appearance and 2 playoff wins!  Enter Trubisky, who's okay, but nothing more.  He still hasn't developed as a passer but he can do enough with his legs to win games with a Khalil Mack-led defense.

Phillip Rivers

Rivers puts up good fantasy numbers, but he hadn't won 10 or more games since 2009, until this year. He's old and expensive and by no means a post-season prescence with only 4 playoff wins in 14 seasons.

Lamar Jackson

Jackson certainly benefits from a great defense, but Gus Edwards (who nobody had ever heard of a month ago) leads the running attack.  Actually, Jackson leads the running and passing attack and though he's a below average passer he's one of the few tossers who can win a game by himself much like Mike Vick in the good old days. He's 5-1 as a starter with only three interceptions in his 6 starts. 

Matt Ryan

His nickname should have been Matty Garbage Time.  He's the king of garbage time stats and one of the most overrated players in NFL history. He's Peyton 2.0.  Every time some body talks about how good he is they lead with passing yards.  The most meaningless stat in sports.  Passing yards aren't connected to wins or efficeincy or passer rating.  They're connected to passing attempts, which is the sound and the fury.  Signifying nothing.  He had the one ridiculously good year and the rest of the time he's just a guy. 

Cam Newton

Newton had been elite for years, but he's never been the same since he injured his shoulder in 2017.  He's got to get healthy to get back to his Superman years.

Carson Wentz

There's an argument to be made that with the same weapons and the same offense, Nick Foles has been better than Wentz.  After 10 games in 2017 Wentz was annointed as the second coming but a back injury has clouded his future.

Jared Goff

As the leader of the greatest team money can buy, he needs to win a couple playoff games in 2018 to move into the next category.

 

 

Very, Very Good

Andrew Luck

We are always hesitant to move a guy up this far in our rankings, but Luck had arguably his best season in 2018 .

Black Prescott

You remember that guy, he's the one that the Matriculator said would have been a first round pick if he had been white. We were the only scout in the world that had him listed as a first round pick. (He joins the GOAT Russell Wilson with that distinction).  People laughed at us and said our racial theory was crazy and then low and behold Tony Romo got hurt. It was the best thing to ever happen to the Cowboys, and we actually said that.  Prescott was the best rookie quarterback in NFL history, with the highest rookie passer rating of all-time Fast forward two more years and he's 31-16 with a 95 passer rating in the regular season and a 103 passer rating in his only playoff start.  Oh, and there's the 18 rushing touchdowns on top.

Tom Brady

Let's see what happens in the post-season.  Brady's numbers in 2018 are on par with Browns rookie (Did he say Browns Rookie!) Baker Mayfield. He looks like a guy with one more year.

Ben Roethlisberger

Ben looked to be sliding down, but he's had an excellent year without Le'Veon Bell.  He's either really bad, or really BAD in the playoffs. Let's see if he has one more year in him.  The end is in sight for Ben the Terrible.

Baker Mayfield

Odd as this may sound, we're a year away from saying we'd rather have Mayfield as our tosser than Tom Brady.  He's been a once in a lifetime player, single handedly carrying the most putrid franchise in the history of sport to a winning record.  In only a dozen or so games.  He's the moxy king now that Brett Favre is gone. 

 

 

Golden Goose

Aaron Rodgers

Judging strictly by the numbers, Rodgers is the greatest quarterback of all time.  He will probably never own any of the major career passing records because he got a late start, but since he's been the starter he's been better than any quarterback in history, by far.  He the NFL's all-time leader in passer rating by a wide margin.  He's also the NFL's all-time post-season leader in passer rating.  His touchdown to interception ratio dwarfs Peyton Manning and Tom Bradys' career ratios.  One more Super Bowl win and he is squarely in the cross hairs of the greatest of all-time debate; however, the fact that he sold out his touchdown celebration to an insurance company hangs around his neck like an albatross.  The wins seem to be fading in spite of impressive stats, but let's see how he does with a new coach next year.

Deshaun Watson

Ever since watching him at Clemson, we just feel like he's never going to lose a big game.  It recently came out that he had never lost by more than one score since his sophomore year...in high school.  He's simply incredible with a passer rating that is number one in the history of the NFL.  He doesn't have enough passes to qualify yet, but damn. We had him rated higher than every pundit and every NFL team and he joins our seemingly infinite list of players on The Matriculator GOAT scouting list.

Russell Wilson

He owns every NFL passer rating record for a player in his first seven years. He also had the record after years 2-3-4-5-6. He's the second highest ranked passer in NFL history and has a career record of 74-36 and two Super Bowl appearances. His worst season he was 9-7 in spite of having mediocre, at best, receivers and the NFL's worst offensive line for most of his time. If you compare his resume to any other tosser for their first seven seasons, he's the greatest of all-time and there's not even anyone close enough to argue about.  He has no weakness and his "it" factor is as high as any quarterback that has ever played. In 2018 down the stretch, with Tyler Lockett as his number one, he has 27 TDs and 3 interceptions. He has the highest passer rating in NFL history when it matters, in December. He's the GOAT.  P.S. He has as many non-cheating Super Bowl wins as Brady in less than half the seasons.

Patrick Mahomes

I have Patrick Mahomes rookie card.  It's worth a nickel if you donate it to Goodwill and claim it on your tax return. Wait, that's his Dad. Okay, the young fella can play.  If we judge greatness on first year as a starter, Dan Marino is number two to Mahomes...by a fair margin. Keep in mind after Marino's first full season at 14-2, he only posted double digit wins 5 more times in his career and never again eclipsed 12 wins.  Mahomes was stunning in 2018, but let's make sure he does it again.