It happens every time, they all become blueberries.

     The Quarterback Eggdicator

A Golden Goose is what you want

And Very, Very Good is something to flaunt

Fair to Middlin' won't get the boot

But Bad Eggs always go down the chute

 

Understand what the Eggdicator is (very accurate) and what it is not.  It is not an indicator (it's an eggdicator) of where a quarterback ranks in his (or her) career.  It is a mostly current barometer of where a tosser ranks based on the past season with a sprinkling of the more distant past and a dash of his, or her, immediate future. Now we have a different gauge than some do when it comes to determining a tosser's greatness.  Our view is that the regular season serves one purpose, to get to the playoffs.  Setting records and going 14-2 and then bed wetting in the playoffs is what Shakespeare called the sound and the fury.  It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.  Those are the Dan Marino's, Peyton Manning's, Drew Brees's, Brett Favre's, and Tony Romo's of the world.  They own nearly every NFL career and single season passing record and in their grand total of 111 seasons have generated a whopping 4 (non-cheating) Super Bowls. Of course Tom Brady is the most overrated tosser this side of Peyton Manning.  He has been in the league 20 years and has less Super Bowl wins (we don't count the ones where he or his team got caught cheating and lost a draft pick, which is every Super Bowl) than Trent Dilfer.  If Brady was really any good they wouldn't have been caught cheating for every Super Bowl win.  Maybe if they had only cheated for 5 of 6 we'd give him a little credit, but all 6 means he's just not any good.  

Bad Eggs

Don't hold your breath for a Super Bowl title.

Justin Herbert

The Jury is out on Herbert.  We expect him to be somewhere in the middlin' category before it's all said and done. 

Sam Darnold

Let's be real, the Jets could bring in Aaron Rodgers and he'd look average.  They haven't had an elite passing quarterback since the turn of the 70's. They doinked their 2018 selection of Sam Darnold, who was more of a late first round developmental type.  Darnold posted 15 interceptions with only 17 touchdowns.  His rookie year was much like his final year at USC (imagine that!) where he made some incredible throws but was simply far too turnover prone.  Some people expected an improvement with a new coach (right?) in 2019, but no dice.  He will be joining Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith on a former tosser reality TV show by 2022.  Mark, Geno and Sam's Big Apple Adventure.

Daniel Jones

Jones had three huge games but posted 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions the rest of the season in 2019.  Granted the Giants didn't give him much to work with, but those numbers are a really bad omen.  He's a few years behind Sam Darnold for a reality TV gig.

Drew Lock

The guy had one good game in 5 starts and he's gone from footnote to clear starter?  The Broncos are in for a rude awakening.  He reminds me of that guy a few years ago who had a few decent games and was deemed the next Joe Montana.  What was his name again?  Oh yeah, Trevor Siemian.  And before that it was Brock Osweiler who was the next great tosser.  And Paxton Lynch.  And Jay Cutler.  And Case Keenum. And Joe Flacco.  And Kyle Orton.  Peyton Manning had the worst quarterbacking season in the last 20 years for any tosser in Denver.  It's a quarterback wasteland, oh yeah.  They're all wasted!

Dwayne Haskins

He reminds us of Jamarcus Russell.

Fair to Middlin'

There are high end Fair to Middlin' and low end Fair to Middlin'.  These guys can get you to a Superbowl, but they better have a great defense and/or running game.

 

Low end Fair to Middlin'

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill is the King of Let's Give Him One More Year. He's like the kid whose mother said, "Well let's just give him a few more months", and she's still breastfeeding her 5 year old. He's 32, average when he plays, highly paid, and oft injured.  He's at the top of the list in the "Handoff to Derrick Henry" category though.  The Titans fell for the oldest trick in the book.  

Matt Stafford

He's been on quite the downhill slide since we attended his rehearsal dinner a few years back. (No joke, we was there.) Some people claim that there's a woman to blame, but he was never really that good. He was, oddly enough, on his way to his best statistical season ever in 2019 before he was injured.  Now he's 32 and coming off of an injury.

Phillip Rivers

Rivers puts up good fantasy numbers, but other than 2018 he hasn't won 10 or more games since 2009. He's old and expensive and by no means a post-season presence with only 4 playoff wins in 14 seasons.  So naturally the Colts pay Rivers a bunch of money when they had a similar, though much younger, cheaper and darker (?) tosser in Jacoby Brissett.

Tua Tagovailoa

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a really good year, but he's a placeholder for Tua. It's certainly possible that Tua doesn't play in 2020, but if he does he won't have a good offensive line or a stable receiving corps.  If he moves up on the Eggdicator it probably won't be until 2022.

Joe Burrow

Obviously this is our early prediction.  Burrow showed nice poise under pressure in his first two NFL starts, but he's been under heavy pressure.  And losing.  After a while that wears on a tosser and we're concerned that he may be good but we never know it because he's in Cleveland Cincy.  Anywhere in Ohio apparently.  He could become the next David Carr.  A wasted talent.

Bitchell Trubisky

Checkdown Mitch.  He's got no savvy, savvy?

Baker Mayfield

He started with such promise.  Year one for Baker was excellent, and then he remembered he was in Cleveland.  Players just don't develop there.  It's uncanny.  He's a bad 2020 away from being an afterthought.  If he turns it around in 2020, there will still be hope.  

Kirk Cousins

Kirk, we don't like that 2018 season buddy.  He's been highly inconsistent for weeks and months at a time.  Overall he's been average but there is always that sense he's going to make a playoff run which he did in 2019. Expect 2020 to be a down turn on the Cousins' roller coaster. 

Derek Carr

Carr finally eclipsed a 100 passer rating in 2019 yet there are still grumblings that Gruden doesn't like him.  The Raiders brought in Marcus Mariota in what seems like a Rich Gannon Redux.  Carr's not a Yugo nor a Mercedes.  He's the Chevy Lumina of quarterbacks.  

Matt Ryan

His nickname should have been Matty Garbage Time.  He's the king of garbage time stats and one of the most overrated players in NFL history. He's Peyton 2.0.  Every time somebody talks about how good he is they lead with passing yards.  Passing yards is the most meaningless stat in sports. (Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards in 2019 and couldn't get a starting job. The two other guys in the top 5 with Matty Garbage? Jack Goff and Philip Rivers.  We told you!)  Passing yards aren't connected to wins or efficiency or passer rating.  They're connected to passing attempts which is a function of the Falcons consistently bad defense. Ryan had the one ridiculously good year and the rest of the time he's just a guy who finds ever entertaining ways to lose.

Carson Wentz

He's falling off early in 2020 and the Eagles drafted a high end back-up in Jalen Hurts.  What started so brightly for Wentz could become a nightmare as soon as 2021. 

Teddy Bridgewater

He is probably the poster child for the actual middle of the middlin' tosser range.  He's sometimes good and rarely bad.  His career 22-12 record entering the 2020 season is excellent, but he's about to experience high volume losing for the first time in his career.  


High End Fair to Middlin':

 

Tom Brady

Brady has been mediocre for a few years now.  In 2019, after the Patriots were caught cheating again, he lost two crucial home games.  He's never been very good when he's not cheating.  In Tampa with a loaded cast he looks average.  Football is hard when you don't know the other team's plays.

Drew Brees

Like Brady, he's beginning the down slide.  He's still a guy who can win (home) playoff games if they make it out of the NFC South.

Gardner Minshew

He and Ryan Fitzpatrick are vying for the Mr. Moxie title.  The Jags are one of the worst organizations in all of sports.  Nobody wants to be there, all of their best players get traded, and yet Minshew has a winning record.  He's Dirk Diggler whether he wins or loses, and that's good enough for us.  

Ryan Fitzpatrick

See above.

Josh Allen

Dude can runWe were spot on with our Jake Locker comparison.  Allen has had some great games running, but he has a passer rating of 78 and a 30/21 touchdown to interception ratio.  Of course when you combine that with the Bills pathetic record with tossers, this was bound to happen.  He's started 2020 strong, but it's been versus the Jets and Dolphins so don't get too worked up.

Jack Goff

He had a great running game and loads of offensive talent.  He's put up solid regualr season numbers but hasn't gotten it done when it matters.  He's lost Todd Gurley who has been the Rams best offensive player for years.  Until he performs in big games, we're not buying.

Cam Newton

Newton has been injured the past few years and been a shell of his former MVP self.  Early in 2020 he's showing flashes of the old Cam, drilling Seattle in Seattle for over 425 yards from scrimmage and doing what Tom Brady couldn't do in a decade, giving Julian Edelman his career high in receiving yards.   

Ben Roethlisberger

Ben is simliar to Cam in that he's been injured (most of 2019) and is getting older.  It's tough to know what is left for an entire season but if he can stay healthy he's not a guy you count out. 

 

Very, Very Good

Kyler Murray

We're going to go ahead and Nostradamus here.  Murray hasn't done enough yet to warrant a VVG rating, but we think he will be here by the end of the year.  His rookie year was solid and we expect a 35 TD season (including rushes) in year two. 

Jimmy Garoppolo

He's an elite talent.  His winning percentage, in NFL history, is currently...wait for it...number one.  He has won a higher percentage of games than any tosser to ever play in the NFL.  And he has a Super Bowl appearance in his first full season.  If he stays healthy he becomes the succesor to Aaron Rodgers. 

Aaron Rodgers

Judging strictly by the numbers, Rodgers is the second greatest quarterback of all time.  (Russell Wilson is first). He will probably never own any of the major career passing records because he got a late start, but since he's been the starter he's been better than any quarterback in history.  He the NFL's all-time leader in passer rating though Russell Wilson may take that title as early as 2020.  He's also the NFL's all-time post-season leader in passer rating.  His touchdown to interception ratio dwarfs Peyton Manning and Tom Bradys' career ratios.  One more Super Bowl win and he is squarely in the cross hairs of the greatest of all-time debate; however, the fact that he sold out his touchdown celebration to an insurance company hangs around his neck like an albatross.  The wins and Arod's interest seemed to be fading in 2018 and 2019.  2020 could be a return to his Golden Goose form of the past. 

 

 

Golden Goose

Lamar Jackson

The 2019 MVP is another in the new breed of multi facteted tossers.  He is Mike Vick with passing chops.  He's impossible to defend.  If his game is on, he's the greatest quarterback to ever play.  Literally unstoppable. Can he stay healthy?  That's the concern.  

Deshaun Watson

Ever since watching him at Clemson, we just feel like he's never going to lose a big game.  It recently came out that he had never lost by more than one score since his sophomore year...in high school.  He's simply incredible with a passer rating that is number one in the history of the NFL.  He doesn't have enough passes to qualify yet, but damn. We had him rated higher than every pundit and every NFL team and he joins our seemingly infinite list of players on The Matriculator GOAT scouting list.  Unfortunately he's saddled, for at least one more year, with Boob O'Brien who thought it was a good idea to give away the NFL's best receiver in Deandre Hopkins.  

Russell Wilson

He owns every NFL passer rating record for a player in his first seven years. He also had the record after years 2-3-4-5-6. He's the second highest ranked passer in NFL history and has a career record of 74-36 and two Super Bowl appearances. His worst season he was 9-7 in spite of having mediocre, at best, receivers and the NFL's worst offensive line for most of his time. If you compare his resume to any other tosser for their first seven seasons, he's the greatest of all-time and there's not even anyone close enough to argue about.  He has no weakness and his "it" factor is as high as any quarterback that has ever played. In 2018 down the stretch, with Tyler Lockett as his number one, he has 27 TDs and 3 interceptions. He has the highest passer rating in NFL history when it matters, in December. He's the GOAT.  P.S. He has more non-cheating Super Bowl wins as Brady in less than half the seasons.  We expect a record setting year in 2020 and maybe the black guy can actually get an MVP vote.  He never has. 

Black Prescott

You remember that guy, he's the one that the Matriculator said would have been a first round pick if he had been white. We were the only scout in the world that had him listed as a first round pick. (He joins the GOAT Russell Wilson with that distinction).  People laughed at us and said our racial theory was crazy and then low and behold Tony Romo got hurt. It was the best thing to ever happen to the Cowboys, and we actually said that.  Prescott was the best rookie quarterback in NFL history, with the highest rookie passer rating of all-time .  Fast forward two more years and he's 31-16 with a 95 passer rating in the regular season and a 103 passer rating in his only playoff start.  Oh, and there's the 18 rushing touchdowns on top.  Dude's a baller and about to make $300 million in the next six months because Jerry Jones just ain't too 'telligent. 

Patrick Mahomes

I have Patrick Mahomes rookie card.  It's worth a nickel if you donate it to Goodwill and claim it on your tax return. Wait, that's his Dad. Okay, the young fella can play.  If we judge greatness on first year as a starter, Dan Marino is number two to Mahomes...by a fair margin. Keep in mind after Marino's first full season at 14-2, he only posted double digit wins 5 more times in his career and never again eclipsed 12 wins.  Mahomes was stunning in 2018, and followed that up with a Super Bowl win and $500 million dollar off season gift.  He's the dude, and he's really cool too.