It happens every time, they all become blueberries.

     The Quarterback Eggdicator

A Golden Goose is what you want

And Very, Very Good is something to flaunt

Fair to Middlin' won't get the boot

But Bad Eggs always go down the chute

 

Understand what the Eggdicator is (very accurate) and what it is not.  It is not an indicator (it's an eggdicator) of where a quarterback ranks in his (or her) career.  It is a mostly current barometer of where a tosser ranks based on the past season with a sprinkling of the more distant past and a dash of his, or her, immediate future. Now we have a different gauge than some do when it comes to determining a tosser's greatness.  Our view is that the regular season serves one purpose, to get to the playoffs.  Setting records and going 14-2 and then bed wetting in the playoffs is what Shakespeare called the sound and the fury.  It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.  Those are the Dan Marino's, Peyton Manning's, Drew Brees's, Brett Favre's, and Tony Romo's of the world.  They own nearly every NFL career and single season passing record and in their grand total of 111 seasons have generated a whopping 4 (non-cheating) Super Bowls.  Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco are just good in the regular season but have beaten sound and fury boys' Super Bowl tally (5) in only 26 seasons.  Our position is that we want the guys that get to the playoffs and then turn it on versus the ones who turn it on in the regular season and choke when it matters. You can call us a crazy, but you'll have to take a number.

Bad Eggs

Don't hold your breath for a Super Bowl title.

 

Jets Tosser

Let's be real, the Jets could bring in Aaron Rodgers and he'd look average.  They haven't had an elite passing quarterback since the turn of the 70's. It's remarkable. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career year in 2015, but he proved in 2016 he's only a back-up. We'd like Bryce Petty if he was developing at another franchise, but he'll fail like virtually every other tosser has in the past 46 years. Geno Smith, whether he had the talent to make it or not we'll never know because he was drafted by the Jets, is too far down stream to ever make it back again.  The Jets need to sign a fully developed NFL tosser in the VVG to Golden Goose range, and that probably won't happen.  Look for Deshaun Watson or Mitch Trubisky to be tossing for the Jets before the end of the 2017 season.

Brock Osweiler

Lordy day!  Last off season we panned the Osweiler signing, and he didn't disappoint.  He's paid like a Golden Goose but really should be pourin' juice, like Gatorade or something.  He's joins the likes of Kevin Kolb, Nick Foles, and Matt Flynn who turned surprising seasons (or parts of seasons or games) into massive contracts. 

Browns Tosser

See Jets Tosser above for a discussion of quarterbacking futility. The Browns have been in quarterback hell because they are bad organization.  Robert Griffin's injury yet again in 2016, has ended any discussion of him being a reliable starting quarterback.  Cody Kessler looked surprisngly solid filling in for RG3, but he's not a starter.  The Browns are the leap years of the NFL, every four years they draft a first round quarterback.  This year the booby prize could go to Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky or Deshone Kizer. 

Blame Bortles

At the end of 2015 everyone was on the Bortles bandwagon.  People confused fantasy (where he was the king of garbage time 300-yard games) with reality where he sucked. He threw 17 and 18 interceptions and was 8-21 his first two years as a starter and he was an emerging talent?  2017 will be the last year as a starter for the guy who famously said he wasn't a natural thrower of the football.

Trevor Siemian

Siemian was surprsingly average in his first year as a starter.  He's not going to ever be anything more than in the mediocre in spite of the bobbleheads constantly talking him up as the next Joe Montana. He was 2-5 in his final seven starts and posted a 3/3, TD/INT ratio in his last four starts.  Paxton Lynch  should be ready to compete in 2017 and the Broncos will probably give Lynch a year to develop before they decide what to do in the long run. 

Jay Cutler

He's done.  Cutler is the perrenial next year prospect, it's just that most people don't get a decade of "next year" like he did.  While we bash on the Jets and Browns records with quarterbacks, they have at least had a high level tosser since the merger.  The Bears...wait for it...have never had a quarterback since the merger with a 2/1 or better TD to Interception ratio.  They are the only team in NFL history who can boast that infamous stat.  The Bears have brought in Ichabod Crane in the form of Mike Glennon. He's the headless quarterback.  The American Psycho of football.  There's simply nothing there.  He has no leadership qualities whatsoever and while he's a decent passer, that's not enough.

Fair to Middlin'

There are high end Fair to Middlin' and low end Fair to Middlin'.  These guys can get you to a Superbowl, but they better have a great defense and/or running game.

 

Low end Fair to Middlin':

 

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill's exactly what we said he'd be!  He's a run of the mill tosser who after five seasons hasn't made a playoff appearance and has thrown 12 or more interceptions every year. He's 37-40, which is exactly what he is!

Andrew Luck

Even before 2015's complete meltdown, Luck was highly overrated.  The only impressive stat on Luck's resume is his winning percentage, which is mostly a factor of playing a historically easy schedule his first three years in the league. In 2016 he was solid, but in three of his five seasons he hasn't been in the top 15 (18th, 26th, 32nd) in passer rating and that makes him a low end fair to middlin' tosser.

Sam Bradford

Throwcahontas is just not special in any way.  We've been banging that drum and sending up smoke signals for years, but nobody seems to get the memo and he keeps getting traded for high draft picks. Through the first 13 weeks of the 2016 season he had 14 touchdowns.  He's keeping the seat warm for another year until the Vikings find a long term solution.  Once they do we suspect he will be traded for a used football and a Tonto action figure, but we'll probably be wrong.

Matt Stafford

In eight seasons he has zero playoff wins and he's thrown 10 or more interceptions every season. His career TD to interception ratio is bad (187/108) and Calvin Johnson is long gone.  He's where Jay Cutler was five years ago.

Carson Palmer

Palmer had the best year of his career in 2015, but regressed badly in 2016.  He's 37 and 2017 has the look of his one and done year. 

Eli Manning

35 years old and a losing record three of the past four seasons.  He throws too many interceptions (his career TD/INT ratio is a horrible 3/2) and his Indian Summers of 2007 and 2011 are fading memories.

 

High End Fair to Middlin':

Colin Kaepernick

CK was perched on the edge of moving into the next category after leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl in his first season as a starter and to the NFC Championship game his next year. 2015 was an unmitigated disaster for CK and the entire organization as Jim Harbaugh pouted his way out of San Francisco and burned his bridges and the team behind him. 2016 wasn't much better, but his numbers the last two years are equal to the NFL's highest paid player, Andrew Luck. Are his problems related to the NFL's worst organization or has he regressed?  We might find out once he escapes from San Fran.

Kirk Cousins

Entering the 2015 season Cousins was an afterthought.  He'd posted 18 TDs to 19 interceptions in his first three seasons and looked like a career back-up type.  In 2015 he was great, but so was Nick Foles a few years ago.  We wanted to see back to back years and he produced again in 2016.  He's got moxy and leadership qualities, but he's with a horrible organization and wants out. To be continued...

Joe Flacco

We can already hear the squawking from Cowboys' fans and Broncos' fans.  "Well he's got a better team". Blah, blah, blah, blah.  Flacco is better because he's very good in the regular season and he won a playoff game in 6 of his first 7 seasons in the NFL. His regular season passer rating is 86, but when you throw in a playoff passer rating over 90 his last four post-seasons, he moves up significantly.  None of Peyton Manning, Tony Romo or Phillip Rivers have ever come close to winning a playoff game in 5 straight years at any stretch in their career. His last two seasons have been disappointing, however, and 2017 is a crossroads season.

Alex Smith

People love to insult him by calling him a game manager.  If protecting the ball means he's a game manager, then sign me up. He's 79-56 in his career and has an incredible 106-38 TD to interception ratio in the past six seasons.  He hasn't thrown double figures in interceptions in any of the past six seasons.

Andy Dalton

He's a good quarterback in the regular season, sometimes even great, but his late season track record is abysmal.  He was having his best season in 2015 before getting injured. He needs to make a playoff run, and soon, to ever move into the VVG category.

Phillip Rivers

Rivers puts up good numbers, but he hasn't won 10 or more games since 2009. 

Drew Brees

Another guy who puts up massive, but generally hollow numbers.  Brees has had a losing record 4 of the last 5 seasons and he's still good, but he's no longer great.

Tyrod Taylor

After waiting for four years behind Joe Flacco, Taylor finally got his chance and was superb.  He had the seventh highest passer rating in 2015 and also ran for over 500 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He was solid again in 2016, but the Bills don't seem enamored with him as the long term answer. That's their problem, not his.

 

 

Very, Very Good

Black Prescott

You remember that guy, he's the one that the Matriculator said would have been a first round pick last year if he had been white. We were the only scout in the world that had him listed as a first round pick. People laughed at us and said our racial theory was crazy and then low and behold Tony Romo got hurt. It was the best thing to ever happen to the Cowboys, and we actually said that.  Prescott is the best rookie quarterback in NFL history, with the highest passer rating of all-time, and we were the only scout in the world that saw it coming.

Matt Ryan

Three years without a playoff appearance. Arm strength diminishing. The worst career playoff winning percentage of any tosser with 5 or more playoff appearances.  A massive contract.  That was the book on Ryan heading into the 2016 season.  An MVP and spectacular Super Bowl later and he is ascending.  Will the real Matt Ryan please stand up?

Derek Carr

He's a fiery competitor and posted a 91 passer rating in his second season in 2015. In 2016 he was even better until getting injured late in the year.  For the first time since the 70's the Raiders boast a stacked roster and Carr could be leading the troops to the promised land in the next few years.

Marcus Mariota

Quietly, Mariota had arguably the greatest rookie season in NFL history on a horrible Titans team.  He was absolutely stunning, though nobody seemed to notice.  He rewrote the record books in only 12 games.  He's the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 4 TDs in his first half of football. He's the only player in NFL history to have a perfect passer rating in his NFL debut and he's also the youngest player to ever have a perfect passer rating. He's the NFL record holder for touchdowns in his first three games and the first rookie to ever post two games with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions.  He was the first Titans quarterback to ever catch a touchdown pass and he had an 87-yard touchdown run, the third longest for a quarterback in NFL history.  In spite of throwing to Kendall Wright as his top dog and being sacked 38 times in 12 games, he posted a rookie passer rating of 91. In 2016 he was even better, posting a 96 passer rating and leading the Titans to a winning record.  If he qualified, he'd be in the top ten in passer rating in NFL history. If we were starting a franchise with a player 25 or younger, he's the only choice.

Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger has been such a tool that people forget he is in the discussion as the greatest big game quarterback of all-time. Like Eli, his numbers won't blow you away but his movement and strength in what is usually a collapsing pocket are legendary.  He's been talking about retirement this off-season which is usually foreboding news, but he's still a guy nobody wants to see in January or in the women's bathroom in Milledgeville, Georgia.

 

 

Golden Goose

Aaron Rodgers

Judging strictly by the numbers, Rodgers is the greatest quarterback of all time.  He will probably never own any of the major career passing records because he got a late start, but since he's been the starter he's been better than any quarterback in history, by far.  He the NFL's all-time leader in passer rating by a wide margin.  He's also the NFL's all-time post-season leader in passer rating.  His touchdown to interception ratio dwarfs Peyton Manning and Tom Bradys' career ratios.  One more Super Bowl win and he is squarely in the cross hairs of the greatest of all-time debate; however, the fact that he sold out his touchdown celebration to an insurance company hangs around his neck like an albatross.  2015 was a terrible year for Rodgers, but still pretty good by most people's standards. In 2016 he looked more like his former Golden Goose self and added two more post-season victories to his resume.

Tom Brady

Before the Patriots got caught cheating he was in the argument as the greatest tosser of all-time.  Beginning in 2010 he started to wet the bed in the post-season.  He posted a passer rating of 57 in the Patriots 2011 playoff loss, 89 in the 2010 playoff loss and 55 in the 2009 playoff loss. While Brady ranks third in passer rating during the regular season, he's wasn't in the top 10 in post-season passer rating.  In 2013 he posted a very mediocre passer rating of 87.  In 2014 he got caught cheating again, though this time it was him cheating directly. In the 2015 regular season he posted a passer rating over 100 only to squat on a 76 in the post-season.  Then Super Bowl 51 happened.

Russell Wilson

He owns every NFL passer rating record for a player in his first four years. He's the second highest ranked passer in NFL history and has a career record of 56-23 and two Super Bowl appearances. His worst season he was 10-6 in spite of having mediocre, at best, receivers and the NFL's worst offensive line for the past two years. If you compare his resume to any other tosser for their first five seasons, he's the greatest of all-time and there's not even anyone close enough to argue about.  He has no weakness and his "it" factor is as high as any quarterback that has ever played. 

Cam Newton

His first 2 years were better than any Golden Goose ever.  Better than Joe Montana and Drew Brees and Terry Bradshaw and Peyton Manning.  In 2014, with a comically bad offensive line, no running game and a below average receiving corps, he won his second straight division title and his first post-season game.  Even though they only won 7 games, there are a only a few tossers who could have done that with that team. 2015 is probably the greatest season in the history of any sport as Newton took a team projected by Vegas to win 8 games and proceeded to generate 45 touchdowns and go 15-1. 2016 was not a particularly good season for Cam. NFL officials decided that he was the only tosser they wouldn't protect from late hits and head shots, and he was banged up and unhappy for most of the season. 2017 will determine whether he stays in the Golden Goose category or begins to slide back.