Warning:  Betting may result in bankruptcy, divorce and/or exclusion from the Hall of Fame.

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The Over/Under is the Matriculator specialty.  Our overall record of 25-7-1 makes the Vegas boys look like Matthew Berry.

2017 Pre-Season Over/Under Picks

 

Miami Dolphins 7.5:  OVER

            The Dolphins have one of the best young coaches in the NFL in Adam Gase, who posted a 10-6 record his rookie year and led the Dolphins to the playoffs.  They have all of pieces from their top tier running game returning and they still possess one of the top receiving corps bolstered by the off season addition of Julius Thomas.   Their defense should be greatly improved with a number of free agent acquisitions and a 2017 draft focused on defensive players.  They play two of the NFL’s worst franchises in the Bills and Jets and we expect 8+ wins to be a relatively easy number for them.

 

Baltimore Ravens 9.5:  UNDER

            Who are the signature players on the Ravens that make anyone think they will win 10 games?  Terrell Suggs is nearing the end of his career, and they don’t have a difference maker on either side of the ball.  The AFC North is tough with the Bengals and Steelers, and we don’t see the Ravens doing better than 8-8. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals 8.5:  OVER

            The Bengals lost a premier player in Andrew Whitworth, but have two young highly drafted players to replace him.  With the addition of John Ross and Joe Mixon and a veteran tosser in Andy Dalton we expect the Bengals to be a top five offense.   Their defense won’t be top five, but it is likewise talented.

 

 

 

 

2016 Pre-Season Over/Under Picks

Tennessee Titans over 5.5

Same as it ever was.  The Titans are loaded with a good young tosser and a stacked backfield to go with the addition of first round tackle Jack Conklin.  They also play in what has in recent history been a terrible AFC South.

Seattle Seahawks under 10.5

They have the best player in NFL history in his prime, but we simply must bet the under against the team with the NFL's worst offensive line winning 11 games.

Arizona Cardinals over 9.5

They may have the deepest roster in the NFL with both a potent defense and stacked offense.

Oakland Raiders over 8.5

Another team with a talented roster in what we expect to be a mediocre division.

2015 Preseason Over/Under Picks

Tennessee Titans over 5.5

6-10 means you're a really bad team, and we think the Titans can be really bad...at a minimum.  They have several guys who can get to the tosser (Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan) and should have an above average defense.  Marcus Mariota will be much better than people expect as a rookie and even without a running game they should be fine with 4 games against the Brian Hoyer-led Texans and Blame Bortles-led Jaguars.  They also get the Browns, Falcons, Raiders, Jets and Bucs.  They will lose to the Dolphins on October 18th.

Atlanta Falcons under 8.5

We still await the call from our hometown team to turn the franchise around, but alas we hear only crickets chirping their sad song of woe.  The Falcons might have the NFL's best owner, but they have the worst front office, and it's not really close.  Not only are they horrible in the draft, their free agent signings are abysmal and they love to sign marginal players (Sam Baker) and past their prime veterans (Roddy White) to mega contracts.  Their top 12 salaries in 2015 include: Tyson Jackson, who should be in jail for stealing NFL teams' money for the past decade; Joe Hawley, whose best attribute is getting personal foul penalties for cheap shots; Jon Asamoah, who can't win a starting job on the NFL's worst line; Devin Hester, who is a punt returner; and of course Matt Bosher, the punter.  The Falcons are perenially in the running for the worst offensive line in the NFL and 2015 should be no different unless Jake Matthews makes a marked leap.  Their defense will improve under new head coach Dan Quinn, but they have to have some talent and there isn't enough there right now.  The tried and true formula for success in the NFL is a good defense and good offensive line and the Falcons have neither.  8 wins is a high water mark for them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 6

Tampa Bay is a perrenial pick of ours, and we always take the over.  It was like shooting fish in a barrel until last year.  People have harped on us that Lovie Smith is a terrible coach, and we're believers.  But the Bucs have too talented a roster to win less than 6 games.  Jameis Winston is a chump, but he is a leader of men and with a rejuvenated Doug Martin and loads of talent at receiver and on defense we expect them to win 7-8 games.  If they win 6, it's still a push.


 

2014 Pre-Season OVER/UNDER Picks

St. Louis Rams Over 6.5

The Rams had a tremendous 2014 draft adding future stars in Aaron Donald and Greg Robinson.  Their front four now boasts four first round picks including arguably the NFL's best defender in 2013, Robert Quinn.  If Jake Long returns to health they will have a formidable offensive line and two quality running backs.  Their passing game won't be special unless Kenny Britt decides to play with his career now on the line, but teams still win with defense and a run game and we expect at least 8 wins from the Rams, even playing in the NFL's best division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 7

We pick the Bucs every year and 2013 was the first time we missed, but we are bringing them back in 2014.  If you assume the Bucs get fair to middlin' play out of the quarterback position they have the NFL's most talented roster.  You heard us correctly.  Their defense is the NFL's best on paper with two of the top players at their position in Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David.  In the off-season they added two of the top free agent defenders in Alterraun Verner and Michael Johnson.  Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson make up one of the NFL's more stable safety pairings.  On offense they added one of the premier pass blocking left tackles in Anthony Collins to pair on the left side with former Pro-Bowler Carl Nicks. Pro-Bowl running back Doug Martin has returned to full strength and at wideout they boast the 6'5" twin towers of Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans who can run, jump and catch.  They also added Austin Seferian-Jenkins at tight end.  The team isn't very deep but their starters stack up with any team and we don't like their division rival Panthers and Falcons to be much better than 8-8.

Carolina Panthers Under 8.5

Cam Newton is a one man gang, make no mistake about it.  He has carried the Panthers to nearly every win they've had since he arrived, but their talent level on the offensive side of the ball is abysmal.  Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant are listed as the top two receivers on the depth chart and the starting tackles are Nate Chandler and Byron Bell. That's horrible.  The defensive front seven is very good but their starting defensive backs include Melvin White, Robert Lester and Thomas Decoud.  Cam may will the team to 8 wins but that should be the high water mark.

Washington Redskins Over 7

Robert Griffin is finally free from Shanarat.  In 2013 Griffin struggled to get back to 100% after his knee injury, but he is still only a year removed from the greatest rookie passer rating in NFL history and a 10 win season.  Even if Griffin goes down again the Redskins have a solid back-up in Kirk Cousins.  The Skins added Desean Jackson at wideout to an offense that already included Pro-Bowler Alfred Morris and an emerging talent at tight end in Jordan Reed.  If Brian Orakpo can stay healthy the defense should be at least average and with a schedule that includes the pathetic AFC South, two games against the Sean Lee-less Cowboys and two games against the Giants, they should reach .500.

2013 Pre-season OVER/UNDER picks

The Matriculator specialty over the past 4 seasons, we have gone an astounding 17-1! 

 

CHIEFS OVER 7

The Chiefs were 2-14 last year.  They may have had the most talented roster for a 2 win team in NFL history as 6 players made the Pro-Bowl.  With the addition of Eric Fisher, the re-signing of Brandon Albert and Rodney Hudson returning from injury, the Chiefs may have the best offensive line in the NFL.  They re-signed Dwayne Bowe and  the arrival of Alex Smith should bring a marked improvement at tosser.  Eric Berry is now two years removed from his ACL injury and is in a contract season.   The defense boasts two outstanding pass rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and they have also added two starting corners in Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson. The fact that they play the Raiders and Chargers twice is also an added bonus.  They should threaten 10 wins.

 

PATRIOTS UNDER 11.5

The good news for the Patriots is that they get six games against the Bills, Dolphins and Jets.  The bad news is that they play the offensively explosive NFC South and the physical AFC North.  Other out of division games include a road game at the Texans and a home game versus the Broncos.  The Patriots roster is not very good, especially if Gronk continues to battle injury.  At present, with Gronk out, they are starting Stevan Ridley, Danny Amendola, Aaron Hernandez and Mike Jenkins at their skill positions.   Combine that with a sketchy secondary, an aging front four that includes Rob Ninkovich and Tommy Kelly, and plodding linebackers in Brandon Spikes and Donta Hightower and the Patriots defense should finish near the bottom of the league once again.  They will win the AFC East without much effort, but they won’t win 12 games.

BENGALS OVER 8.5

The AFC North is rebuilding.  The Steelers have no weapons on offense and an aging defense.  The Ravens lost their two Hall of Famers.  The Browns are the Browns.  The Bengals have several of the NFL’s best young players including A.J. Green and Geno Atkins.  Their defensive front is one of the NFL’s strong and they have a number of emerging young players including Vontaze Burfict, Michael Johnson and Kevin Zeitler.  They added two explosive weapons through the draft in tailback Gio Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert.  We simply can’t see them going 8-8.

 

BUCCANEERS OVER 7.5

The Buccaneers play in the NFL’s best division, but they are loaded with talent.  Josh Freeman has been spotty at times, but he has a host of great weapons around him including Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Doug Martin.  The secondary that was so bad in 2012 has added Pro-Bowlers Darelle Revis and Dashon Goldson.   The front seven includes a number of emerging young talents including Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy.  There are simply too many talented players for the team to stay below .500, even in the NFC South.

 

 

SUPER BOWL:

CIVIL WAR 2.0

 


2012 Over/Under Picks:

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6):  OVER

This is the easiest call of all the pre-season bets.  The Bucs regressed under the lack of laeadership of Raheem Morris but the two primary culprits, Mike Williams  and Legarrette Blount, have been replaced by this off-seasons prized free agent Vincent Jackson and first round running back Doug Martin. They also added Carl Nicks who is one of the top five guards in the league.  The three should be huge upgrades and the additions of LB Lavonte David, CB Eric Wright and S Mark Barron will solidify a young defense that was slowed by injuries last season.  We wouldn't be at all surprised if they won the NFC South but even if they don't, they should cover six games without issue.

New Orleans Saints (10): UNDER

The NFC South boasts the NFL's best young quarterbacks and the Saints tosser is unhappy with his team.  Their coach is suspended for the year, they lost their best offensive lineman and their defensive quarterback has been suspended for the year and has sued the Commish.  It's a three ring circus in New Orleans and we see 8-8 as the most likely outcome.

Seattle Seahawks (7): OVER

We have been impressed by the personnel decisions the Seahawks have made under Pete Carroll.  If the offensive line stays healthy they will give the 49ers a go for the division title.  They can grind it out with the running game and they have an impressive young defense. Matt Flynn is good enough and with Sidney Rice healthy again the offense will score enough to win games.  We don't see them below 8-8, especially considering they get to play the Cardinals and Rams twice.